Recall prediction
It is now minutes into the day of California's historic gubernatorial recall election, and I've decided to post my predictions. You'll note that this reporter has kept her weblog recall-election-free, but what California resident could completely ignore an election in which there are 135 candidates running?I think both propositions will fail, Gov. Gray Davis will be recalled and Arnold Schwarzenegger (better known as "Arnold" or "The Terminator") will be elected.
My candidate reasoning goes like this: Davis and (current Lt. Gov.) Cruz Bustamante will split the Democratic vote, while Schwarzenneger and Tom McClintock will split the Republican vote. I think enough people will vote for the recall simply because they're saying, "Why not?" though it won't be by such a large majority that nobody votes to keep Davis. This means the Democratic candidates will more evenly split the vote than the Republicans, simply because Schwarzenneger still has a huge following -- despite allegations of sexual misconduct. His following extends beyond party lines, so that will give him the extra votes he needs to win.
So there you have it. I'm not saying that's my view; it's just my prediction. As the votes roll in, I'll be at work, watching and waiting to finish my part of our paper's coverage of this very unique piece of California history.
Posted by Layla at 12:29 AM, October 07, 2003
— Comments —